Grey Lotka-Volterra models with application to cryptocurrencies adoption

【Author】 Gatabazi, P.; Mba, J. C.; Pindza, E.; Labuschagne, C.

【Source】CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS

【影响因子】9.922

【Abstract】The study uses grey Lotka-Volterra model (GLVM) of two and three dimensions for assessing the interaction between cryptocurrencies. The 2-dimensional study is on Bitcoin and Litecoin while the 3-dimensional study is on Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ripple. Records from 28-April-2013 to 10-February-2018 provide forecasting values for Bitcoin and Litecoin through 2-dimensional GLVM study, while records from 7-August-2013 to 10-February-2018 provide forecasting values of Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ripple through 3-dimensional GLVM study. The behaviour of Bitcoin and Litecoin or both Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ripple in future is proposed by looking at the 100 last forecasting values of n-dimensional GLVM study, n = {2, 3}. Lyapunov exponents of the 2 and 3-dimensional Lotka-Volterra models reveals that it is a chaotic dynamical system. Plots of 2 and 3-dimensional Lotka-Volterra models for filtered datasets suggest also a chaos. Using the mean absolute percentage error criterion, it was found that the accuracy of the GLVM is better than that of the grey model (GM(1,1)). By analysing the 2-dimensional GLVM, Bitcoin and Litecoin are found in the competition known as mutualism or equivalently a win-win situation where Bitcoin transaction is constant while Litecoin transaction has the increasing trend. The 3-dimensional GLVM analysis evokes however, an increasing trend in transacting both Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ripple where Bitcoin keep relatively higher transaction counts. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【Keywords】Grey Lotka-Volterra model; Mean absolute percentage error; Competition; Interactions; Continuous time model; Differential equations; Difference equations

【发表时间】2019 MAY

【收录时间】2022-01-02

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