Herding and investor sentiment after the cryptocurrency crash: evidence from Twitter and natural language processing
【Author】 Cary, Michael
【Source】FINANCIAL INNOVATION
【影响因子】6.793
【Abstract】Although the 2022 cryptocurrency market crash prompted despair among investors, the rallying cry, "wagmi" (We're all gonna make it.) emerged among cryptocurrency enthusiasts in the aftermath. Did cryptocurrency enthusiasts respond to this crash differently compared to traditional investors? Using natural language processing techniques applied to Twitter data, this study employed a difference-in-differences method to determine whether the cryptocurrency market crash had a differential effect on investor sentiment toward cryptocurrency enthusiasts relative to more traditional investors. The results indicate that the crash affected investor sentiment among cryptocurrency enthusiastic investors differently from traditional investors. In particular, cryptocurrency enthusiasts' tweets became more neutral and, surprisingly, less negative. This result appears to be primarily driven by a deliberate, collectivist effort to promote positivity within the cryptocurrency community ("wagmi"). Considering the more nuanced emotional content of tweets, it appears that cryptocurrency enthusiasts expressed less joy and surprise in the aftermath of the cryptocurrency crash than traditional investors. Moreover, cryptocurrency enthusiasts tweeted more frequently after the cryptocurrency crash, with a relative increase in tweet frequency of approximately one tweet per day. An analysis of the specific textual content of tweets provides evidence of herding behavior among cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
【Keywords】Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Herding; Investor sentiment; Natural language processing; Sentiment analysis; Twitter; G41; G53
【发表时间】2024 2-Sep
【收录时间】2024-09-07
【文献类型】案例研究
【主题类别】
区块链应用-虚拟经济-加密货币
Zach
这篇论文主要研究了2022年加密货币市场崩溃对投资者情绪的影响，特别是比较了加密货币狂热者和传统投资者之间的行为差异。研究使用自然语言处理技术分析了Twitter数据，通过差异中差异（DID）模型来估计加密货币崩溃前后推文情绪的变化。 研究发现，加密货币狂热者在市场崩溃后表现出了不同寻常的情绪反应，他们的推文变得更加中性，而非预期中的负面。这一现象被认为是由社区内的集体正面宣传行为驱动的，比如使用“wagmi”（我们都将成功）这样的口号。研究还指出，加密货币狂热者在崩溃后发推的频率增加，这可能表明他们的行为发生了变化。对推文内容的文本分析提供了加密货币狂热者之间存在从众行为的证据。 论文还探讨了加密货币狂热者和传统投资者之间的情感差异，以及这些差异对市场监管的潜在影响。此外，研究提出，如果社交媒体上的情绪与心理健康有关，那么加密货币市场的状况可能会影响加密货币狂热者的心理健康。 研究存在两个局限性：首先，从众行为的证据主要是定性的，缺乏因果分析；其次，DID模型的主要结果可能低估了加密货币崩溃对加密货币狂热者的真实影响，因为他们在推文中故意强调正面情绪，这可能影响了情绪评分的准确性。 总的来说，这篇论文提供了关于加密货币市场崩溃如何影响不同类型投资者情绪的深入见解，并强调了监管加密货币市场的重要性，尤其是在考虑到投资者心理健康的情况下。
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