Forecasting tail risk for Bitcoin: A dynamic peak over threshold approach

【Author】 Ke, Rui; Yang, Luyao; Tan, Changchun

【Source】FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS

【影响因子】9.848

【Abstract】This paper employs a dynamic peak over threshold (PoT) model to measure and forecast both the lower and upper tail Value at Risks (VaRs) of Bitcoin returns, which offers a new perspective to investigate the tail risk dynamics for Bitcoin. We evaluate the VaR forecasting accuracy of this model compared with that of the GARCH-EVT models based on Student-t, skewed Student-t and Generalized error distribution. The empirical results illustrate that the dynamic PoT model exhibits superior out-of-sample VaR predictive ability, specifically for the lower tail VaR. Thus, this model can be a useful and reliable alternative for forecasting tail risk.

【Keywords】Tail risk; Value at risk; Peak over threshold; Bitcoin

【发表时间】2022 OCT

【收录时间】2022-08-15

【文献类型】实证数据

【主题类别】

区块链治理-市场治理-市场分析