Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?

【Author】 Gerritsen, Dirk F.; Lugtigheid, Rick A. C.; Walther, Thomas

【Source】FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS

【影响因子】9.848

【Abstract】Using a hand-collected dataset containing bullish, neutral, and bearish predictions for Bitcoin published by crypto experts, we show that neutral and bearish predictions are followed by negative abnormal returns whereas bullish predictions are not associated with nonzero abnormal returns. Based on all outstanding predictions, we compute prediction revisions relative to (i) the latest issued prediction and (ii) the outstanding consensus prediction. Downward revisions are followed by negative abnormal returns. We conclude that crypto experts are skilled information intermediaries on the Bitcoin market.

【Keywords】Bitcoin; Experts; Analysts; Market efficiency; Predictions; Forecasts; Cryptocurrencies

【发表时间】2022 MAY

【收录时间】2022-07-30

【文献类型】实证性文章

【主题类别】

区块链治理-市场治理-数字货币