PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL DURATION

【Author】 Aknouche, Abdelhakim; Almohaimeed, Bader; Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos

【Source】JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

【影响因子】1.208

【Abstract】We propose an autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model with periodic time-varying parameters and multiplicative error form. We name this model periodic autoregressive conditional duration (PACD). First, we study the stability properties and the moment structures of it. Second, we estimate the model parameters, using (profile and two-stage) Gamma quasi-maximum likelihood estimates (QMLEs), the asymptotic properties of which are examined under general regularity conditions. Our estimation method encompasses the exponential QMLE, as a particular case. The proposed methodology is illustrated with simulated data and two empirical applications on forecasting Bitcoin trading volume and realized volatility. We found that the PACD produces better in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts than the standard ACD.

【Keywords】Positive time series; autoregressive conditional duration; periodic time-varying models; multiplicative error models; exponential QMLE; two-stage Gamma QMLE

【发表时间】2021 JAN

【收录时间】2022-01-02

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